Will the surge of nationalism in French politics be damaged by its association with Vladimir Putin? In the short term, yes. Disaffected French cultural figures, from Gérard Dépardieu to Michel Houellebecq, are also long-standing Putin fans, infected by a variant of the pro-Soviet virus which swept through much of French intellectual life in the Fifties. The 2022 election may be over, but the fellow-travelling of the three leading election candidates is a stark reminder of the fragility of the French political status quo. This raises a more fundamental question: why was Putin so popular in France in the first place? Its effect will also be limited: it will mostly be seen by the anti-European, anti-Nato, Macron-detesting portion of the electorate, which would never have voted for him in any case. Yet a Moscow blitz of fake news against Macron was expected anyway. Meanwhile, Moscow will doubtless turn several armoured divisions of online trolls and fake social media accounts on the French campaign. It will, however, also give the President political cover to take action, such as temporary tax cuts, to ease price rises - steps that would normally have been impossible just before a presidential vote.
Of course, Macron’s opponents still have a couple of straws to cling to: most damagingly, the confrontation with Russia will worsen fuel and food inflation, which was already threatening a Macron second term. After enormous pressure from Pécresse, Fillon finally resigned last week from the board of the Russian petro-chemical giant, Sibur. Even the centre-Right challenger Valérie Pécresse - no Putin fan - represents a party whose last Prime Minister, François Fillon, was until last week a salaried Moscow ally. But three of his main adversaries have praised or idolised him for years. Macron may or may not have been too indulgent with Putin last month. Despite the failure of his peace mission, the war will freeze the campaign and swing many moderate, non-ideological voters behind him. President Macron has until Friday to enter the race formally. So does Marine Le Pen and so does Jean-Luc Mélenchon.Īs a result, I believe that the presidential election is all but over. The man who presents himself as the saviour of his nation now finds himself aligned with a man threatening to destroy it. Perhaps more surprising is what Zemmour didn’t say: he made no mention in Chambéry of Putin’s repeated threat to use nuclear weapons. More from this author Has Macron already won? In other words, he meant wars against Islam. “But the countries of the West no longer have the stomach for war… We need to consider the consequences of that.” The West, he implied, should actually be fighting “wars of civilisation” which “our elites will not accept”. Putin’s Russia exists in the 19th century and regards war as a way of defending its strategic vision,” Zemmour said. Last Friday, Zemmour gave a strangely incoherent speech to a cheering and flag-waving rally of his faithful supporters in Chambéry in the French Alps: he both criticised Putin and defended him, appealing for peace and glorified war. “We know the Russians and the Russians know us.
But it is unlikely to impress the wider electorate. This approach will appeal to part of their core support, which is viscerally anti-European, anti-American, and anti-Nato. Now, with scarcely a mea culpa, they have reverted to blaming the West for not giving in to Moscow on Nato expansion, and have resumed their mockery of Macron for his ill-fated peace missions to Putin last month. But he also did him an unwanted favour: war in Ukraine has raised Emmanuel Macron’s chances of re-election in April from “pretty good” to “near-certain”.Īfter the first bombs fell, the Moscowteers scrambled to distance themselves from the Russian president.
When he held a peace summit with Emmanuel Macron just before he sent his tanks into Ukraine, Vladimir Putin humiliated the French president.